…Ephson’s real poll puts Nana 8% ahead of Mahama, But…
The Daily Statesman can report that the outcome of the latest research conducted by the Bureau of National Investigations on the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections predicts a one-touch victory for Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, Presidential Candidate of the New Patriotic Party, with a clear NPP majority in Parliament.
This latest BNI survey is consistent with an earlier one they did, except the high number of undecided voters in the earlier one has dropped considerably.
Like the BNI survey, the Daily Statesman can further report that the actual poll conducted by researchers for Ben Ephson, Editor of the Daily Dispatch, also predicts but a slim one-touch victory for the opposition leader.
But consistent with nearly all the polls out there, Ben Ephson’s real poll results have Nana Akufo-Addo maintaining an 8 percentage point lead over the incumbent, President John Dramani Mahama.
However, the Daily Statesman has learnt that the results that his researchers on the field brought are not likely to be what he may be sharing with the public this week.
According to very reliable sources, Mr Ephson had been impressed upon by the sponsors of the polls, largely funded by First Lady Lordina Mahama, to claim that the election will be very close, but per his expectations and calculations, President Mahama is going to win with 50.2%.
His polls, according to evidence shared by those who work with him and very unhappy about the machinations going on, give Nana Akufo-Addo 51.90%, nearly eight percentage points ahead of the incumbent, President John Dramani Mahama.
The poll, which they said has a margin of error of 2%, had only 43.65% of those polled saying they would vote for John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress.
According to the polls, President Mahama and the NDC are losing the elections mainly because of the economic hardship, escalating unemployment, corruption, arrogance of power and the general wind of change blowing in the country.
The latest BNI poll gives Nana Akufo-Addo 52%, six percentage points over President Mahama who is predicted to receive 46% of the popular votes on December 7.
For the entire parliamentary elections, the BNI research suggests the NPP is likely to get 144 seats, with the NDC losing its current majority to secure 131 seats.
According to the BNI, in addition to winning its traditional strongholds of Ashanti and Eastern Regions, the NPP is on course to winning the swing regions of Greater Accra and Brong-Ahafo while sharing the other swing regions of Central and Western almost equally with the governing NDC.
However, the NPP expects to register one of its biggest wins in the Central Region, according to our checks.
The BNI poll projects that the NPP will get 75% in the Ashanti region; 60% in the Eastern Region; 51% in the Brong-Ahafo Region; a 50% in the Greater Accra Region; 49% in the Central Region; 49% in the Western Region; 43% in the Northern Region; 35% in the Upper East Region; 33% in the Upper West Region; and 18-20% in the Volta Region.
The NDC, on the other hand, is projected to get 80-82% in its stronghold of Volta Region; 63% in the Upper West Region; 61% in the Upper East Region; 55% in the Northern Region; 49% in the Western Region; 49% in the Central Region; 47% in the Brong-Ahafo Region; 47% in the Greater Accra Region; 38% in the Eastern Region; and 25% in the Ashanti Region.
However, when contacted for a comment, the founder of the Danquah Institute and respected political strategist, Asare Otchere-Darko, warned the NPP against complacency.
He said, “polls are only indicative of what people said their choices were at the time they were asked. No polls can also tell you the impact of vote-buying, voter turnout and possible manipulation of results.”
To him, the positive thing is the large lead that the NPP flagbearer seems to maintain over the President in all the polls out there, a gap which ranges between 8 and 14 percentage points.
“It is difficult to see how John Mahama can overturn this lead. But, it may all mean very little if the NPP is unable to get its people out to vote in their numbers on the day and get those votes protected all the way to the point of declaration of the presidential results.”
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