Running mate of the New Patriotic Party, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia sought to do a comparative trend analysis when he analysed Ghana’s economy under the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
His aim was to find out whether the state of Ghana’s economy is built on a foundation of concrete or straw.
His did not seek to find average GDP growths as indicated by the Roads Ministry , Policy think- tank and some propagandists of the ruling NDC government but the trends from 2001 to 2008 and 2009 to 2016.
The facts of Ghana’s GDP growth rate from 2001 to 2016 as presented by Ghana Statistical Service are, 2001- 4.0% , 2002- 4.50% , 2003- 5.20% , 2004- 5.6% , 2005- 5.9% , 2006- 6.4% , 2007- 6.5% , 2008- 8.4% , 2009- 4.0%, 2010- 8.0%, 2011- 15.0%, 2012- 8.8%, 2013- 7.6%, 2014- 6.9%, 2015- 3.9%. Based on the data, Dr Bawumia analysed the trend on GDP growths and found an increasing trend during 2001 to 2008, from 4.0% in 2001 to 8.4% in 2008 under the NPP non-oil economy, a big drop in 2009 to 4.0%, a rise between 8% and 15% under Prof E Mills and a big decrease from 8.8% to 3.9% in 2012 to 2015 respectively.
Understanding the decreasing trend from 2012 to 2016 under President John Mahama’s oil economy from 8.8% in 2012, 7.6% in 2013, 6.9% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015 proves Dr Bawumia right that the Mahama led government has managed the economy poorly in the light of massive resources and accumulated generational debts.
Dr Bawumia was also right to point that the strong concrete of increasing economic growth under the NPP era aided Prof E. A Mills’ economic performance of GDP growths.
Ghanaians should therefore be extremely worried for the declining economic growths from 2012 till now in spite of the IMF rationalization programme.
Dr Bawumia was right on showing that national income increased between 2001-2008 and people at the bottom of the income scale became better off and in the 2009-2016 period as income increased, people at the bottom of the income scale have become worse off.
Providing evidence, Dr Bawumia’s assessment on income inequality as measured by the change in minimum wage relative to the change in national income, increased to 1.8% during the 2001 to 2008 and has seen a major decrease since 2008, with the worst decline of negative 5% arising during President Mahama’s term.
I think that IMANI got it wrong because Dr. Bawumia did not forge the data but used it in the context of his analysis.
Data can be evaluated in many contexts and as long as Bawumia did not forge the data proves IMANI’s claim of “unfair manipulation” wrong. Dr Bawumia should be commended for adding a new paradigm of lectures in our Ghanaian election campaigns.
This has the potential of changing the propaganda based election campaigns to issue based campaigns.
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