After the electoral victory of Donald Trump in the just concluded US presidential election, it was reported that many Americans were shocked at the result and were passionately seeking answers as to the reason why Trump won the election. People sought answers from friends, leaders and even search engines.
Many people however did not get satisfactory answers, as they appeared to be looking for one central reason why Trump won, when there is actually no such reason. In the election, just as in most elections, there was not just one reason for the final outcome, rather there were factors that played out in favour of each candidate and also those that played out against them.
The difference in this election however was not a big unknown reason but was more about the shock people felt about the outcome and how passionately some voters wanted a different outcome. Both pollsters and the media who ought to have given the electorate an idea as to the direction the election was headed continued to give the impression that Hillary Clinton will win the election. Even when few polls put Trump ahead of Clinton, there were several other polls and analysis to the contrary.
This expectation that Trump will lose was also accompanied with the understanding in many quarters that Trump was somehow unelectable and that if he won there will be serious consequences. Many who opposed him therefore passionately wanted to see him lose.
Among the factors that played out in his favour were:
1. Change
Some people just wanted “change” in their economic and other situations. Trump represented and had a message of change. Change from the Establishment; change for some section of the country to be heard; change from political correctness; change relating to illegal immigration, among others. Clinton, being a woman also represented change but she could not sufficiently counter Trump’s message, as she was seen as representing the establishment and anything some voters did not like about their current situation. It will be recalled that “change” also played a role in Obama’s election.
2. Wikileaks
Whatever the intention of wikileaks was when they released “leaks” relating to Clinton, the effect of the revelations was that many facts were brought to light and considered during the election which would have remained unknown but for the leaks. The harder the Democratic party campaign tried to create a desired image of its candidate the more Wikileaks released leaks that were not in line with the campaign’s expectations.
3. MSM, DNC and the Underdog Factor
Although Trump is very wealthy, Clinton undoubtedly had a lot of resources in her favour. The disparity however became so much that it actually worked against her. Heavy pro Clinton and anti Trump message from the mainstream media (MSM) made many see Trump as an underdog or even a victim. This position was reinforced when it was revealed that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) played an overtly favourable role in the emergence of Clinton as the candidate for the Democratic Party. Many Trump’s supporters felt they were fighting against a powerful candidate that if left unchecked will use her numerous resources to muscle her way into the White House and felt they could not let that happen.
4. Clinton
Clinton herself can be said to be one of the reasons why Trump won. Whether she was right or wrong in her actions, the handling of the Benghazi incident, using private server for classified E-mails, leaks on DNC, contents of revealed leaks, among others, relate to Clinton herself.
She in no small way also shot herself in the foot when she said that half of Trump’s supporters belong in a “Basket of Deplorables”. That definitely helped unify Trump’s supporters who began to see themselves as part of some sought of movement, especially as Trump’s campaign took advantage of it. Such a movement had the ability to sway many undecided voters, particularly young voters.
Some have suggested that Trump would not have won if he had run against Bernie Sanders or another candidate. This however can only be speculation at this point as there is no way to confirm it.
5. Trump
Trump himself was another “reason” for his electoral victory. Trump’s personality, message and the way he passed the message across contributed hugely to his electoral victory. Although Trump had in some cases made very controversial statements, he had a lively and entertaining personality. He also had the ability to pull a crowd, both during campaign rallies and on social media, which helped him counter the impact of MSM. Trump also had many rallies and appeared closer to his supporters.
6. The US Electoral System
The electoral system in the US is one in which the President is determined not by winning the popular vote but generally by winning at the Electoral College. Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages. The current system may have played a role in Trump’s emergence as he may have lost the popular vote but won at the Electoral College.
7. The Role of the FBI
The FBI was at different times accused by supporters of Trump and Clinton of taking actions that supported the opposing candidate. The effect of the FBI is however more complicated than simple. When the FBI stated that Clinton would not be prosecuted for using private server for classified E-mails, some Trump’s supporters argued that she was above the law. When the FBI announced about 10 days to the election that an investigation was to be conducted into new E-mails that had been discovered, they (or rather the head of the FBI) were accused of interfering in the election by Clinton’s supporters. 2 days to the election they also announced that there was no wrongdoing on Clinton’s part and some people disagreed with the new assessment. If the FBI had any effect on the election it can best be described as a complicated one.
It can be said that just as in any election several factors worked in favour of Trump’s electoral victory. The difference however is that Trump’s electoral victory came as a total shock due to failure of pollsters, MSM and others to accurately predict the outcome. This is coupled with the emotionally charged nature of the electoral atmosphere during the election.
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