Turkish President Recep Erdogan alleged, giving the Obama administration a ‘new-year-surprise’, December 28 that Turkey is in possession of “confirmed evidence, with pictures, photos and videos” of the US’ support to ISIS.
While it may seem too much to say at this point of time that NATO, given the gravity of the situation triggered by the out-going US president’s nebulous foreign policy, is disintegrating, what is happening is that the Western military alliance is facing an unprecedented crisis. This crisis is certainly as unusual and dramatic as any Shakespearean tragedy. More than a strong military alliance, NATO is at its worst and looks like a house divided against itself. It looked like this when Turkey, second biggest military power in the western alliance, point-blank accused the Obama administration of covertly supporting ISIS and other terror outfits, which are bent upon destroying Iraq and Syria and are now likely to target Turkey too.
While Erdogan had previously lambasted the US for supporting Gulen , Erdogan’s enemy number one and a potential terrorist according to Turkish officials, this time he took it to the next level and blamed the US, for the first time ever, for continuously supporting Daesh and Kurds.
We already know that the US has been officially supporting certain ‘moderate groups’ in Syria and that this support has directly contributed to the intensification of the conflict in Syria. What we know now is the support US has been providing to the most devastating terror groups the world has ever seen. As a matter of fact, the recently announced lifting of restrictions on the supply of heavy weapons to these so-called moderates is yet another irrefutable evidence of the support the US continues to provide to these groups who are directly threatening the lives of those fighting Daesh and other terror networks.
Whereas the allegation that a NATO member (the US) is trying to destabilize another NATO member (Turkey) is a reflection of a crisis brewing in the alliance, it also marks the strong urge in the region to oust the US (read: a number of other countries including Iran have tacitly claimed to have evidence of the support US has been providing to Daesh) and embrace Russia as an ally, truly capable of and willing enough to counter existential threats such as ISIS.
With Turkey taking a series of steps to re-write its relations with the West, including the EU (read: Turkey is planning to upgrade its Customs deal with the EU in the first half of 2017), and with Turkey distancing itself from playing a second fiddle to the US in Syria and Iraq, a potential exit of the US from the region is looking imminent.
It is this potential and probable ‘exit’ from the region that seems to have prompted Erdogan to set the trajectory of his new foreign policy in motion without waiting for the new US president to assume responsibilities. The new trajectory has excluded, interestingly enough, the US only as Turkey has invited both Saudi Arabia and Qatar to formally join the trilateral forum to discuss the Syrian endgame.
These two Gulf states, which have been deeply involved in the Syrian conflict, would know that the US has rendered itself fairly irrelevant to the endgame in Syria. Therefore, the strong likelihood is that they will cooperate – tacitly at least – with the Russian-Turkish move to get the opposition to sit across the table with the Syrian government.
Erdogan also called on GCC members such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar to join Russia, Iran, and Syria in peace talks regarding the current crisis next month. He said these countries (the Russian coalition) have “shown goodwill and given support” to Syria. He stressed that Turkey would not take part in negotiations if “terrorist groups” like the Kurdish separatists were involved.
State Department spokesman Mark Toner responded to Erdogan’s statement by saying that it was “ludicrous” and that it has “no basis for truth.” Toner added that the U. S. is “100 percent behind the defeat and destruction of Daesh, even beyond Syria and Iraq.”
Thus, the question now becomes – what is Erdogan’s purpose behind those statements? After all, Erdogan has remained stalwart in the NATO camp ever since the beginning of the crisis where he argued that Turkey only supported moderates, never acknowledging the fact that Turkey was buying ISIS’ stolen oil and providing jihadists with porous borders so that they could easily cross over into Syria. So why would Erdogan throw his NATO and GCC “allies” under the bus and actually spill the beans regarding Western/GCC support of terrorists?
The answer is actually a number of possibilities. Some researchers may suggest that Erdogan’s stance is changing and that he is moving Turkey more into the Russian orbit, abandoning the NATO position of destroying Syria and, thus, beginning the process of dropping the U. S., GCC, and NATO baggage and exposing imperialists at the behest of the Russians. Others attribute his statements to the mere ravings of a madman lashing out at the slightest sign of criticism or political trouble. While these explanations are possibilities, the reality is most likely that it is a complex web of intrigue that centers itself around Erdogan himself and the position of the Muslim Brotherhood that has caused Erdogan to make such a statement.
It appears that Erdogan is attempting to sit on the fence between two world powers and their alliances – the Western world hegemon and the Russian coalition – while, at the same time, trying to promote his neo-Ottoman vision for Turkey. While Erdogan was firmly within the NATO camp at the start of the Syrian crisis, it is quite likely that Erdogan has started to realize that chaos in Syria might very well equal chaos in Turkey and that U. S. support for the Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq might ignite Kurdish separatists in Turkey, throwing his own country into chaos and civil war yet again. Thus, Turkey has moved more toward the direction of Russia, despite having shot down a Russian jet and acting provocatively toward Russia in the past. Turkey continues to keep its borders open for ISIS fighters to cross into Syria and it continues to maintain its “safe zone” area which is nothing more than a forward operating base and supply line corridor for ISIS and its related terror organizations.
As Erdogan’s own plan of playing both sides continues, the situation inside his own country will most likely continue to deteriorate, despite his clever handling (or masterminding) of the recent coup that saw him eliminate many of his political and institutional enemies. As the domestic situation in Turkey worsens, Erdogan will likely face losses both in Syria and Iraq and will most likely move closer to Russia. As a result, the West will attempt to rein him in, using both the carrot and the traditional American stick. Domestically, his troubles may overwhelm him or, at the very least, the stability of his country. With that being said, we should welcome Erdogan’s newfound honesty and encourage him, if he has the photos and videos he claims to possess, to release them to the media immediately.