Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats party (CDU) has unseated rivals Social Democrats (SPD) in a key election, exit polls say.
The CDU is projected to win 34.5% of votes in North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state, compared with 30.5% for the SPD.
The SPD has run the state for most of the post-war period.
The vote was seen as a test for Mrs Merkel, who faces a general election in September.
Voters were choosing candidates for the state legislature, which may now change from its current SPD-Green coalition.
The SPD’s vote is down by 8.6 percentage points on the last election there in 2012, while the CDU vote is up by almost the same amount.
SPD leader Martin Schulz had predicted a victory there would make him the next German chancellor – but the victory for Mrs Merkel’s party will now give her a boost as she seeks a fourth term.
The first exit polls also predict 12% for the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP); 6% for the Greens; 7.5% for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD); and 5% for The Left.
The BBC’s Damien McGuinness in Berlin says the result is “a clear win” for Mrs Merkel’s party.
The issues that shaped the election were primarily regional, but the third regional election loss for the SPD this year is also a strong signal for national parliament elections later in the year, he adds.
German newspaper Die Welt also said the red-green coalition currently in power in the state “has clearly lost their majority”.
The result could also mean the worst election result for the SPD since 1947, the newspaper added.
Polls before the vote had suggested the CDU and SDP were neck-and-neck.
But the CDU’s campaign – which targeted voters’ frustration on issues such as traffic congestion, rising crime and education – appears to have swayed voters.
It promised to improve security, with longer prison terms for offenders and more funds for the police.
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