UN-sponsored Syria peace talks limped towards a close on Friday after more than a week in Geneva with little sign of progress beyond possible agreement on an agenda for more substantial negotiations.
That may seem a low bar by which to judge diplomatic achievement — but for the United Nations’ envoy Staffan de Mistura, simply keeping the process from collapsing is probably as much as he can hope for.
The veteran UN mediator warned from the outset against expecting “miracles” — especially as the position of US President Donald Trump’s new administration is not yet clear — and there have certainly not been any.
De Mistura has met daily with delegations from the Syrian regime and opposition groups, who — as in previous rounds — have not met face-to-face, apart from a symbolic joint opening ceremony last week.
On Thursday night, one week after that hopeful start, the Swedish-Italian diplomat held talks until 3:00 am, according to one source.
On Friday he was meeting again with all sides, and could hold a closing press conference in the evening, or if not then on Saturday, according to another informed source.
“As far as the negotiations are concerned, if they end today as is expected Mr de Mistura said from the very beginning that he does not expect a breakthrough,” said Jihad Maqdisi, head of the Cairo platform, one of two smaller opposition groups in Geneva along with the main High Negotiating Committee (HNC).
“However, we have achieved a momentum and God willing this will be the end of the procedural matters so that in the next round, which may be held soon, we can achieve substantive progress.”
The Geneva negotiations, the fourth round mediated by de Mistura and the first since last April, are aimed at ending a conflict that began in March 2011 with protests against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Its seventh year begins on March 15.
Since then more than 310,000 people have been killed and hundreds of thousands have fled the country, fuelling instability in neighbouring countries and creating Europe’s biggest migrant crisis since World War II.
The warring Syrian sides have been joined in Geneva by envoys of key parties including notably Russia, a major ally of Damascus.
But as in previous talks the focus has been almost exclusively on the agenda.
Under UN Security Council Resolution 2254 they should be framed in three “baskets” or areas of discussion: governance, constitution and elections.
But Damascus wants to add counter-terrorism to the agenda, while the opposition wants to discuss political transition more explicitly, specifically the fate of President Assad.
The antagonism has been clear in briefings after each session of talks with de Mistura, with the Syrian regime delegation chief Bashar al-Jaafari lashing out at “terrorists” in the HNC, which laments the lack of a genuine “partner for peace”.
The talks had hardly begun last weekend when they were rocked by a suicide assault which killed dozens in Syria’s third city Homs.
Al-Jaafari demanded after the attacks that terrorism be made a “priority” in Geneva.
If there has been movement, some put it down to pressure from Moscow.
Russian deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov, in Geneva for a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council, has met with the Syrian regime delegation and — a first — with the opposition.
Moscow, which has backed Assad militarily since September 2015, is also pulling the strings politically, especially in the absence of a strong line from the new US administration.
This pressure seems to have paid off, since for the first time the Syrian regime said it was ready to accept the three-basket agenda set by de Mistura, as long as terrorism was also broached.
HNC delegation chief Nasr al-Hariri was cautious about where the negotiations go from here.
“The political process is not easy and we do not expect clear results in a week or two weeks, this matter will need more efforts and time,” he said.
“We’re still here, which is a success in itself,” added opposition delegation member Monzer Makhous.
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