Panama walking out on its relationship with Taiwan to establish ties with rival China is the latest in a spate of diplomatic dumping that is leaving Taipei increasingly isolated.
Beijing still sees self-ruling Taiwan as part of its territory to be reunified, while the democratic island views itself as a sovereign country, although it has never formally declared independence.
The governments in Taipei and Beijing insist that countries can only recognise one of them as legitimate and for years they have kept a tally of their supporters.
Most states have sided with Beijing, and the numbers doing so have swelled as China’s global financial and political clout has grown.
But a dwindling band of nations still formally recognise Taiwan — mainly developing countries in Africa, Latin America, the Pacific and the Caribbean.
The diplomatic tug-of-war enjoyed a hiatus between 2008 and 2016, when Taiwan’s then-president Ma Ying-jeou called off the competition and nurtured closer ties with the mainland.
But since China-sceptic leader Tsai Ing-wen came to power last year, cross-strait relations have worsened dramatically and erstwhile friends have started to jump ship.
Only 20 states, including the Vatican, now officially recognise Taiwan, with predictions that number will shrink further.
In December 2016 the small African nation of Sao Tome and Principe severed ties with Taiwan, acknowledging China’s “increasingly important” international role, as Beijing pumped billions of dollars into the continent.
In March that year, China announced it was to resume ties with Gambia, after the West African country broke off relations with Taiwan in 2013 citing “strategic national interest”.
Prior to that, Malawi had been the last ally to jump ship, in 2008, one of nine that switched under former Taiwan president Chen Shui-bian.
After Chen took the helm in 2000, cross-strait relations hit rock bottom because of his promotion of the island’s independence.
The other allies lost during his eight-year term were Macedonia, Liberia, Dominica, Vanuatu, Grenada, Senegal, Chad and Costa Rica.
Chen established new ties with three small countries — Kiribati, Nauru and St Lucia — bringing the total number of formal friends to 23 by the time Ma took office in 2008.
Taiwan now has just two allies in Africa — Burkina Faso and Swaziland.
In central and south America, Taiwan counts Belize, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay as official allies.
Chen’s ties with Kiribati, Nauru and St Lucia still stand, along with the Marshall Islands, Palau, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu in the Pacific.
The Caribbean nations of St Kitts and Nevis and St Vincent also still have formal ties.
The Vatican is widely seen as Taiwan’s most powerful remaining ally — its only one in Europe — but there have been signs Beijing is working towards resuming relations with the Holy See.
Although there are an estimated 12 million Catholics in China, there have been no diplomatic relations between the Vatican and Beijing since 1951.
China is suspicious of religion and the “official” Catholic Church is run by the government-controlled Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association — but there is also an “underground” Church which swears allegiance only to the pope.
State-sanctioned bishops in China are chosen by the association, while the Vatican insists on its right to appoint all the Catholic Church’s bishops.
However, the head of the Catholic Church in Hong Kong said last year the Chinese government was willing to reach an “understanding” with the Vatican over the issue, although it is expected to be a lengthy process.
According to Taiwan’s local media and some of the island’s lawmakers, other allies rumoured to be considering switching ties are El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Paraguay.
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