The Ablekuma Central constituency situated in Accra encompasses areas like Mataheko, Lartebiokoshie, Abosey Okai, Zamramaline, Russia and Shukura.
It is largely a middle-class and lower class residence with majority of residents being people of northern descent – Hausas.
There are also Gas, Akans and Ewes in this constituency. The constituency can boast of good roads including the Kaneshie-First Light Road, the First light-Flamingo stretch, and the Mortuary Road.
Conversely, areas like the Adwenbu electoral area, parts of Shukura, Russia are deplorable. The constituency also lacks a good drainage system.
This has left such areas within it, as Mataheko, flood prone. Ablekuma Central constituency has since 1992, voted for the winning presidential candidate.
In other words; it has always determined the winner of the presidential elections, typifying what analysts describe as a swing constituency.
This categorization makes it somewhat difficult to classify this particular constituency as a New Patriotic Party’s (NPP); or a National Democratic Congress’ (NDC) stronghold since both parties have equally shared the spoils.
On December 7 2016, I led Citi FM’s election coverage in Ablekuma Central and I must say it was spectacular. I had previously studied the constituency and its vote dynamics, interacted with the people and gauged their vote direction prior to this day.
In fact, on one of such visits, I joined the NDC’s Alhaji Halidu Haruna on his house to house campaign, from which I immediately felt the constituents’ discontentment with the governing NDC.
The people largely hummed the tune; the incumbent MP, Theophilus Tetteh Chai had not lived up to expectation and they were going to show their disapproval by voting against him and his party, for the NPP.
Some boldly told the candidate to his face; “Tetteh Chai hasn’t done anything for us and so we will vote for Eben” (thus, the NPP’s candidate).
Well, Haruna, in his personal capacity had constructed a few gutters and erected some streetlights.
He had tried in his little way to address the people’s needs even before they voted for him. And he did campaign, vigorously!
His message to the people was to vote for him as parliamentary candidate, and also for his corresponding presidential candidate, John Dramani Mahama, to enable them sufficiently develop the constituency. He told them that voting “skirt and blouse” as they had always done, would not bring them the development they so seek.
Fast forward to December 7; Ablekuma Central falls to the NPP. Well, maybe, it did not really fall as the NPP had held that seat for three terms in the past; the party merely took it back.
However, for someone who’s lived all of her life in the constituency; and has followed this year’s election closely, an NDC loss doesn’t come as a surprise. Many, including the NDC candidate were probably dazed by the over 6000 vote margin between the NDC and the NPP, but that was predictable.
Here are five reasons why;
The people of Ablekuma Central like the majority of Ghanaians needed change; a change of administration, a change of party in government.
The NDC had held the seat for two successive terms as in the case of the presidency. And for majority of the people, there was the need to eject some fresh blood and new energies into the government.
Besides the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress, the Convention People’s Party (CPP), the Progressive People’s Party (PPP) and the National Democratic Party (NDP), all had representatives contesting the constituency’s election.
Though the CPP’s candidate was in the race for the second time, the middle-aged woman had not the requisite clout to propel a competitive contest.
This effectively narrowed the contest to just the two main parties, giving the NPP an easy win.
But was it really an easy win? That brings me to the second cause of the NDC’s defeat.
In the last elections in 2012, the NDC beat the NPP by just 1,461 votes. This was the first. The margin since 1996 had hovered between six thousand and four thousand votes.
It was so clear to realize that the NPP, having come that close for the first time, could easily annex the seat.
But the NDC candidate most probably did not see it coming, or rather chose to underestimate the contest.
In fact, he had sworn to overrun the margin with some nine thousand more votes to it. And he campaigned diligently toward that rather audacious goal. Nonetheless, the electorates had their own plans.
One of the things that the electorates openly and bitterly complained about was the poor performance of the outgoing MP, Theophilus Chai.
Majority of the electorates felt he had done very little to earn his party a retention in office. Halidu himself admitted this when he told me “We are gradually losing trust from the public but I am in to make a difference”.
He tried very hard to convince the people he stood for a difference. But the people thought a candidate on the ticket of a different party would do the trick.
Deserted by his own
Out of the seven electoral areas in Ablekuma Central, two, (Mambrouk and Nmenmeete) considered the Zongo areas, have consistently voted for the NDC.
The NPP stood no chance in these areas without the hand of God.
However, on the night of the collation, as we all listened half-asleep to results as they dripped in, it was clearly manifested the Zongos had left the shades of the umbrella.
My mind raced back to the night I toured the Zamaramline, one of the Zongo communities with Halidu.
The people threatened to “vote skirt and blouse” and they did.
At the end of the day, the figures between the two persons in the Zongo areas were so close it was unbelievable.
This to me is not necessarily one of the reasons why the NPP won the elections in Ablekuma Central.
However, for the winning candidate and his team, it is a very good reason.
The candidate, Ebenezer who came so close in 2012, was convinced he was ripped off, which conviction led him to contest the election results in court.
Four years after, he decided to use the popular Ghanaian “open your eyes wide” technique, particularly at the result collation stage to secure his votes.
Outside the collation center, NPP supporters massed up and stayed late into the night.
They impressed on the losing candidate to concede, intermittently chanting, “We won’t let what happened in 2012 happen again”.
The winning candidate himself was visibly agitated as he kept shouting out at the EC officials, “this was the same thing that happened in 2012 and I will not let it happen again”.
In the end, the NPP’s Ebenezer Nartey was declared winner and he felt he had worked hard for it.
He might have but I think the NDC delivered him the victory on a silver platter.
The NDC will have a lot of introspection to do in the coming days to fully appreciate the extent of the electorates’ anger towards them.
This will help them as a party, prepare for 2020.